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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 58

Washington Commanders 7 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(:32) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to IND 14, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 15-K.Coutee.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.15 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 58, worth -2.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 18, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP