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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 67

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:47) 6-M.Haack punts 62 yards to WAS 5, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 15-D.Milne pushed ob at WAS 17 for 12 yards (58-B.Okereke).

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.31 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 67, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 25, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP