Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 61

Washington Commanders 7 – Indianapolis Colts 3

(6:21) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to IND 10, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 15-K.Coutee to IND 19 for 9 yards (58-S.Toney; 34-C.Holmes).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.16 EP
56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 61, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model