Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 74

Houston Texans 3 – Tennessee Titans 17

(1:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 13-B.Cooks to TEN 48 for 26 yards (31-K.Byard).

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

What Happened

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.13 EP
57% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 74, worth -3.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.33 EP