Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 13 at the 84

Houston Texans 3 – Tennessee Titans 17

(6:28) 11-C.Johnston punts 34 yards to 50, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-46-J.Weeks.

The Three Options

GO -2.77 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.22 EP
68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 84, worth -4.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model