4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 64

Tennessee Titans 17 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(7:15) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 57 yards to HOU 7, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-D.King to HOU 19 for 12 yards (25-H.Haskins).

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.01 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 64, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 22, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model