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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 80

Houston Texans 3 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 11-C.Johnston punts 60 yards to TEN 20, Center-46-J.Weeks. 2-R.Woods to TEN 31 for 11 yards (46-J.Weeks; 53-B.Cashman).

The Three Options

GO -2.66 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.60 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 80, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 37, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model