4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 17 at the 53

Houston Texans 3 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(3:31) 11-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to TEN 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.62 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 53, worth -2.90 EP
KICK -1.36 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model