4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 1

Tennessee Titans 7 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(6:34) 75-D.Radunz reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 1, worth +0.32 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model