Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 63

Houston Texans 3 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(13:01) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to TEN 15, Center-46-J.Weeks. 2-R.Woods to TEN 25 for 10 yards (32-G.Wallow). PENALTY on HOU-36-J.Owens, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 25.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.98 EP
71% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model