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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 43

Tennessee Titans 7 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(:20) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.44 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 43, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.79 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.84 EP