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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 60

Houston Texans 3 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 11-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to TEN 17, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.27 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 60, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 19, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model