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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 90

Houston Texans 3 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 11-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to TEN 47, Center-46-J.Weeks. 2-R.Woods pushed ob at HOU 37 for 16 yards (23-E.Murray).

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.88 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 90, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 47, worth -2.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model