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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 58

San Francisco 49ers 31 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(2:32) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to LA 9, Center-46-T.Pepper. 19-B.Powell to LA 9 for no gain (26-S.Womack).

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.71 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 58, worth -2.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 18, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model