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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 12

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(1:04) 9-R.Gould 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.09 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 12, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 22, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model