Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 93

Philadelphia Eagles 35 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

(7:19) 8-A.Siposs punts 44 yards to PIT 49, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-45-R.Lovato.

The Three Options

GO -3.12 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.98 EP
64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 93, worth -5.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model