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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 47

Philadelphia Eagles 28 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(1:59) 8-A.Siposs punts 46 yards to PIT 1, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-27-Z.McPhearson.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.58 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model