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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 61

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:59) 8-A.Siposs punts 49 yards to PIT 12, Center-45-R.Lovato. 82-S.Sims to PIT 22 for 10 yards (27-Z.McPhearson).

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.81 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model