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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 82

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(10:11) 6-P.Harvin punts 46 yards to PHI 36, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 6-D.Smith pushed ob at PHI 39 for 3 yards (27-M.Allen).

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.15 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 82, worth -4.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 40, worth -2.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model