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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 82

New York Giants 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(6:19) 6-J.Gillan punts 49 yards to SEA 33, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 41 for 8 yards (20-J.Love).

The Three Options

GO -2.98 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.86 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 82, worth -5.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 40, worth -2.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model