Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 72

Seattle Seahawks 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(8:53) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to NYG 23, Center-46-C.Tinker. 80-R.James to SEA 35 for 42 yards (83-D.Young; 25-T.Homer). PENALTY on NYG-47-C.Brown, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 35.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.25 EP
59% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model