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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 69

New York Giants 13 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(7:44) 6-J.Gillan punts 69 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 69, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 27, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model