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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 63

New York Giants 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(11:25) 6-J.Gillan punts 49 yards to SEA 14, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.67 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 63, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 21, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP