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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 33

Seattle Seahawks 10 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(2:47) 5-J.Myers 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.90 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 33, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 43, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP