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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 13

New York Giants 7 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(6:08) 9-G.Gano 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.58 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 13, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 23, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model