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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 6

Seattle Seahawks 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(12:42) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 89-W.Dissly to NYG 3 for 3 yards (41-M.McFadden).

The Three Options

GO +3.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.93 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 6, worth +0.55 EP
KICK +2.42 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.42 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model