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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 18

Seattle Seahawks 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(14:17) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 16-T.Lockett to NYG 14 for 4 yards (30-D.Holmes).

The Three Options

GO +3.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.98 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 18, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.40 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 28, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT +0.63 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model