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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 35

Detroit Lions 27 – Miami Dolphins 31

What Actually Happened

(2:59) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 8-J.Reynolds.

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.04 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 35, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
  • 71% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 45, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model