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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 46

Miami Dolphins 31 – Detroit Lions 27

What Actually Happened

(8:28) 4-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to DET 8, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 11-K.Raymond to DET 12 for 4 yards (27-K.Crossen).

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.41 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 46, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.58 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 13, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP