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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 67

Detroit Lions 24 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(1:49) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 38-C.Moore. 38-C.Moore left end to DET 46 for 13 yards (27-K.Crossen; 22-E.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.70 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 67, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 25, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model