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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 27

Miami Dolphins 14 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(2:10) 7-J.Sanders 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.70 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 27, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 37, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model