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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 24

Detroit Lions 21 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(7:07) 17-M.Badgley 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.40 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 34, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.86 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP