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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 55

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(14:23) (Punt formation) 41-M.Farley right end to LV 42 for -3 yards (29-P.Adebo). PENALTY on LV-34-B.Bolden, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.40 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 55, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 16, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model