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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 15 at the 57

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(8:22) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to NO 16, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.86 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 57, worth -3.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 17, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model