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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 30

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(:48) (Shotgun) 3-J.Stidham pass short left to 84-K.Cole to NO 18 for 12 yards (32-T.Mathieu). Pass 5, YAC 7

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
What Happened
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +2.64 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 40, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.61 EP