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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 45

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(1:56) (Shotgun) 3-J.Stidham pass short right to 10-M.Hollins to NO 38 for 7 yards (20-P.Werner). Pass 4, YAC 3

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.32 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 45, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +0.33 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model