Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 59

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(7:57) 6-A.Cole punts 46 yards to NO 13, Center-47-T.Sieg. 89-R.Shaheed to NO 18 for 5 yards (41-M.Farley; 22-A.Abdullah). INJURY UPDATE: NO 22-M.Ingram, knee, OUT.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.93 EP
68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 59, worth -3.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model