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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 59

New Orleans Saints 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:58) 4-B.Gillikin punts 46 yards to LV 13, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-D.Turner to LV 16 for 3 yards (53-Z.Baun).

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.70 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 59, worth -2.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP