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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 20

New Orleans Saints 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(:09) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +2.96 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 20, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30, worth -0.08 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model