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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 37

Green Bay Packers 17 – Buffalo Bills 27

What Actually Happened

(:43) 2-M.Crosby 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +2.50 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 37, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.82 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model