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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 38

Green Bay Packers 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(8:51) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 87-R.Doubs [91-E.Oliver].

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.54 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 38, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -0.21 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 47, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model