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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 19

Buffalo Bills 24 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(6:03) 2-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.96 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP