Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 93

Denver Broncos 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

(7:18) 17-C.Waitman punts 50 yards to JAX 43, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 13-C.Kirk to DEN 47 for 10 yards (50-J.Griffith; 48-M.Fraboni).

The Three Options

GO -3.13 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.90 EP
64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 93, worth -5.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model