Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 77

Denver Broncos 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

(13:04) 17-C.Waitman punts 54 yards to JAX 23, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 13-C.Kirk to JAX 29 for 6 yards (48-M.Fraboni).

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.25 EP
60% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 77, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model