Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 63

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Denver Broncos 14

(14:29) 9-L.Cooke punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.74 EP
68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 63, worth -3.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model