4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 16 at the 81

Denver Broncos 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(:41) 17-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to JAX 30, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 13-C.Kirk to JAX 39 for 9 yards (40-J.Strnad).

The Three Options

GO -3.07 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 81, worth -4.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 38, worth -2.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model