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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 19

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(6:54) 4-E.Pineiro 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.95 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 19, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 29, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model