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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 1

Carolina Panthers 13 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(11:50) 75-C.Erving reported in as eligible. 33-D.Foreman left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.68 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 1, worth +0.62 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model