4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 52

Minnesota Vikings 34 – Arizona Cardinals 26

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 14-R.Wright punts 39 yards to ARI 13, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +0.51 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 52, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -0.90 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model