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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 44

Arizona Cardinals 26 – Minnesota Vikings 34

What Actually Happened

(2:45) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 26-E.Benjamin to MIN 41 for 3 yards (58-J.Hicks).

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.44 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 44, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.29 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model